Two Gems and a Value Play

Week 11 - Main Slate Breakdown

by Tim G. (@FireUpFantasyTG on X)

Fire Up Fantasy wants to make your winning as seamless and hassle free as possible. We pride ourselves on doing the dirty work for you by analyzing the latest data, rankings, and stats. In doing so, we have identified three key players to target at each position for daily fantasy success: two top-tier options and one value play. 

In daily fantasy sports, finding the right balance between high-priced talent and salary-saving value plays is essential to winning. To win big, you need to craft the ideal mix of players.

Below, you will find our top picks: two premium or mid-tier players and one salary relief option at each position. FireUpFantasy provides the blueprint you need to succeed, so let’s find the winning combination and take down that tournament!  Here are our favorite plays per position:

QUARTERBACK:

• Brock Purdy ($6,600 on DraftKings -- $8,400 on FanDuel)

Brock Purdy has been on a tear against teams who struggle to defend the pass. In his five games against defenses ranked in the bottom third for pass defense, he's averaged 296 passing yards per game, throwing 10 touchdowns while throwing just one interception. Purdy and the 49ers will face off against their NFC West rival, the Seattle Seahawks, who rank 21st overall in pass defense. The 49ers and Seahawks previously met Week 6 in Seattle, where San Francisco cruised to a 36-24 victory. In that game, Purdy threw for 255 yards and three touchdowns, with Deebo Samuel catching one and two going to tight end George Kittle.

With Christian McCaffrey back in action last week, posting 107 all-purpose yards (68 of those receiving from Purdy), it is clear the offense is about to really hit its stride. Despite losing top receiver Brandon Aiyuk for the rest of the season, Purdy still has a wealth of weapons at his disposal, ensuring the 49ers’ offense remains dangerous heading into this divisional showdown.  Purdy is GEM this week!

•  Patrick Mahomes ($6,800 on DraftKings -- $7,900 on FanDuel)

Patrick Mahomes. What else is there to say? The man simply knows how to win. The Kansas City Chiefs enter this matchup with a perfect 9-0 record, boasting the 8th-ranked passing offense in the NFL. They will face a Buffalo defense that ranks 19th against the pass. While Mahomes may not be putting up his typical MVP numbers this season, he is still delivering solid performances, and this favorable matchup presents an ideal opportunity for a breakout game.

The last four meetings between the Chiefs and Bills have been incredibly competitive, each decided by a one-score margin. Expect more of the same this week, as Mahomes looks to guide his team to another win.

Against defenses ranked lower than Buffalo's 19th, Mahomes has averaged 256 passing yards per game, with 8 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. While his touchdown-to-interception ratio is not stellar, it is important to note that elite quarterbacks like Mahomes often take more risks downfield, which can lead to more interceptions. This is especially true when they trust their ability to thread the needle.

The good news for Mahomes is that his top target, Travis Kelce, seems to be back in form. Over the last three games, Mahomes has connected with Kelce 32 times, and we expect that chemistry to continue. This game sets up perfectly for a Mahomes/Kelce stack if you are looking to pay up at both the quarterback and tight end positions.

After analyzing the matchup, it is clear—Mahomes is a GEM this week!

•  Russell Wilson ($5,900 on DraftKings -- $7,800 on FanDuel)

Russell Wilson may be a bit difficult to like off the field these days—squirmy, cringy, and generally just giving off a weird vibe—but on the field, his matchup this week is anything but lame. Wilson faces off against the Baltimore Ravens, who currently rank dead last (32nd) in pass defense. This will be Wilson’s first taste of the Ravens-Steelers rivalry, a matchup known for its intensity, physicality, and fierce competition.

Since taking over as the starter in place of Justin Fields, Wilson has been surprisingly solid. In three games, he has thrown for six touchdowns, rushed for another, and has only thrown one interception while losing one fumble. Wilson is averaging 245.6 passing yards per game, and although his rushing ability has slowed with age, he still offers a modest 4.3 rushing yards per game.

Wilson will look to exploit a Ravens secondary that has been struggling mightily. After allowing 428 passing yards to Joe Burrow last week, it is hard to believe Baltimore has made significant improvements in practice this week. While we only have a small sample size with Wilson starting for Pittsburgh, being able to roster a Super Bowl-winning quarterback against the worst pass defense in the league while coming at a discount is an opportunity too good to pass up.

Wilson will lean on his top target, George Pickens, who has averaged 19 DraftKings points per game over the past three weeks since Wilson took over. He will also target talented tight end Pat Freiermuth, who found the end zone last week against Washington. At just $5,900 on DraftKings and $7,800 on FanDuel, Wilson is our top VALUE quarterback this week!

RUNNING BACK:

• Josh Jacobs: ($7,100 on DraftKings -- $7,400 on FanDuel)

Josh Jacobs is set to face the 21st-ranked Chicago Bears defense, who have struggled against the run this season. Jacobs has thrived in similar matchups against bottom-tier defenses, including a 127-yard, two-touchdown performance against Jacksonville (ranked 28th in run defense), a modest 62 yards on 18 carries against Arizona (20th in run defense), and a dominant 151 yards on 32 carries against the Colts (ranked 28th). Over those three games, Jacobs averaged 113.3 rushing yards per game and found the end zone twice.

With the Packers offense likely to control time of possession, given Chicago’s struggles to sustain drives, Jacobs should have plenty of opportunities to make an impact. We expect him to replicate his strong performances from those earlier stated contests, and it is very possible he hits 100 rushing yards again while finding the end zone.

Jacobs averages 17.5 carries and 2.1 receptions per game, making him a consistent workload option. With Jacobs $100 cheaper than De'Von Achane, $500 less than Jonathan Taylor, and $200 cheaper than Jahmyr Gibbs on DraftKings, Jacobs offers excellent value, and we believe he will be the top running back play of the day against his division rival, Chicago. Jacobs is a GEM this week!

• Christian McCaffrey: ($8,300 on DraftKings -- $9,800 on FanDuel)

This is shaping up to be a huge game for the 49ers' offense, and it is hard to imagine Christian McCaffrey won't play a significant role. After returning last week without any limitations, McCaffrey totaled 107 all-purpose yards, despite only rushing for 39 yards. He added 6 receptions for 68 yards, showing that he is back to his dynamic self. Now, facing the 25th-ranked run defense in the Seattle Seahawks, McCaffrey is in a prime position for a big outing.

In Week 6, when McCaffrey was sidelined with an Achilles/calf strain, the 49ers ran for 228 yards in Seattle, a testament to their strong running game. With McCaffrey fully healthy, this is a perfect opportunity for what many consider the most talented back in the league to shine. While we do not have a full season's worth of stats to back up this claim, last week's eye test proved he is back at full strength.

Quarterback Brock Purdy is known for playing smart and making strong decisions with the ball and Purdy loves to check down to McCaffrey when his first or second read is not there, so it is not out of the question for CMC to see 20+ touches in this game. Fire Up Fantasy believes CMC is primed to find the end zone for the first time this season and put up a massive stat line. McCaffrey is a GEM this week!

• Audric Estime: ($4,500 on DraftKings -- $5,400 on FanDuel)

Everyone is talking about Denver's rookie running back out of Notre Dame, and for good reason. Coming into the season, the buzz around Estime was that he is a powerful, explosive runner who is not afraid of contact.  Last week, in a tough loss to Kansas City, the Denver coaching staff chose to give Estime the bulk of the workload, with him out-touching veteran Javonte Williams 14 to 1. Estime finished with 53 rushing yards, and we believe he has the potential to improve on that performance this week against the 18th-ranked run defense of the Atlanta Falcons.

Estime is priced at a discount, but do not let that fool you — there’s real upside here. Head coach Sean Payton said earlier this week that he was “encouraged” by Estime’s performance in the close loss and confirmed that the rookie will continue to see more reps moving forward. While we know coaches sometimes offer misleading statements, taking Payton at his word suggests Estime will remain the focal point of the Broncos’ backfield.

At just $4,500 on DraftKings and $5,400 on FanDuel, Estime is our top value running back of the day. He is a sneaky play with serious upside for a breakout game. Estime is our top VALUE running back this week!

WIDE RECEIVER:

• Aman-Ra St. Brown: ($8,000 on DraftKings -- $9,200 on FanDuel)

This is an absolute no brainer this week. For the eighth straight game, Aman- Ra St. Brown is going to score a Touchdown. Yes, you read that right, seven games in a row now St. Brown has found the end zone, and we do not see how the streak does not continue facing off against the Jacksonville Jaguars 30th ranked pass defense. The Jaguars are like a lost puppy right now, losing three straight games and boasting a 2-8 record they have no identity on either side of the ball and are the league’s most under-performing franchise at the moment. On the other hand, Detroit knows exactly who they are, playing fast, physical and against the analytics, thanks to head coach Dan Campbell.

The Lions pass offense ranks 12th in the league, a big thanks to St. Browns play. This year St. Brown is averaging 6 catches a game and has six games where he scored at least 18 DraftKings points. This matchup is right out of the lions dreams, and the only way St. Brown doesn’t cruise past his average of 17.6 DraftKings points is if the game script does not call for it, which remember is a possibility as the Lions are ranked 5th in rushing offense with two very talented running backs in Jamyr Gibbs and David Montgomery.  This week we project 7 receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown for Aman- Ra. You guessed it, St. Brown is a GEM this week!

• George Pickens: ($7,000 on DraftKings -- $7,500 on FanDuel)

George Pickens has been on fire the last three games since Russell Wilson took over as the starting quarterback. Over this stretch, Pickens has posted DraftKings scores of 20.5, 11.4, and 25.1 points. During this span, he has found the end zone twice — a feat he had not accomplished in the first six games with Justin Fields under center. Pickens and Wilson are beginning to develop a strong connection, and with more reps and trust between them, this pairing has the potential to become one of the most dangerous QB/WR tandems in the league.

This week, Pickens will face the Ravens' league-worst (32nd) pass defense, and he will be looking to take advantage of their vulnerabilities. Pickens is coming off an impressive performance with 5 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown, so his confidence is soaring. The Steelers, coached exceptionally well, will certainly game plan to exploit Baltimore's weaknesses, and the game script should favor Pickens even more. The Ravens' high-scoring offense means the Steelers will likely need to keep pace, creating more opportunities for Pickens to make plays in the passing game.

We expect Pickens to record at least five receptions for 85 yards and believe he will find the end zone again this week, marking back-to-back weeks with a touchdown. At $7,000 on DraftKings and $7,500 FanDuel, George Pickens is GEM this week!

• Juaun Jennings: ($5,300 on DraftKings -- $6,200 on FanDuel)

This week, we are going to get a clearer picture of how San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan plans to move forward with the offense. The 49ers have a wealth of weapons on that side of the ball, but with Brandon Aiyuk out for the season and Deebo Samuel missing time earlier, Jauan Jennings has seized the opportunity to become a key piece of the puzzle.

After securing a new contract in the offseason, Jennings has surprised many — though not 49ers fans who are familiar with the value he brings to the team. He made his presence felt last week, returning from an ankle injury to catch 7 passes for 93 yards against Tampa Bay. Most of those catches came on third downs, an area where Jennings has consistently excelled throughout his career. His ability to find soft spots in the defense, especially on critical third downs, is something quarterback Brock Purdy relies on. Jennings’ dependable hands and knack for recognizing the first-down marker make him a trusted target for Purdy in traffic.

While Jennings may lose a few snaps to rookie first-round pick Ricky Pearsall, who scored his first NFL touchdown last week, this is no cause for concern. The 49ers’ offense is deep, and there is plenty of room for everyone to get involved. Purdy is known for spreading the ball around, and Jennings will continue to be a focal point in this high-powered attack.

Averaging 68.4 yards per game on 4.6 catches, we project Jennings to match these numbers this week with 5 catches for 77 yards and a couple of key first downs. At just $5,300 on DraftKings and $6,200 on FanDuel, Jauan Jennings is an absolute steal this week. Jennings is our top VALUE wide receiver!

TIGHT END:

• Travis Kelce: ($6,300 on DraftKings -- $7,400 on FanDuel)

Alright, I know, we are all a little tired of the Kelce brothers and Taylor Swift headlines but let us not overlook the fact that after a slow start to the season, Travis Kelce looks like he is rounding back into his usual Pro Bowl form. This week, he faces off against the Buffalo Bills in what should be a high-scoring affair. The Bills are ranked 19th in pass defense, which sets up nicely for Kelce, Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs’ 8th-ranked passing offense to move the ball efficiently.

Kelce has been on fire the past three weeks, posting DraftKings scores of 20.4, 26.0, and 25.0, with touchdowns in two of those games. Over this stretch, he is averaging a whopping 10.6 receptions per game, proving he is fully back to being the elite target we all know and love.

At $6,300 on DraftKings, this is the highest price we have seen for Kelce since Week 1, but do not let that scare you off. We expect him to exceed his projections once again and play a key role in the Chiefs' success. We are projecting Kelce to secure 8 catches for 91 yards and a touchdown this week. This makes for a perfect stack with Mahomes, who we also have listed as a top play.

So yes, we might be seeing a lot of Taylor Swift on TV again—because Kelce is a GEM this week!

•  David Njoku: ($5,500 on DraftKings -- $6,600 on FanDuel)

In a game that could feature a lot of turnovers and three-and-outs, David Njoku surprisingly emerges as a strong fantasy option against the 26th-ranked Saints pass defense. Despite the Browns' struggling offense, Njoku's ability to break free with his 4.64 speed and make plays after the catch could be the game's lone bright spot. The Browns' passing game ranks just one spot ahead of the Saints pass defense (25th vs. 26th), yet Njoku holds an edge due to his big-play potential. He has shown the ability to break off long runs and score touchdowns at any moment, making him a strong play this week.

Njoku enters this matchup averaging 11.3 DraftKings points per game, with 42.5 receiving yards per game and touchdowns in two of his last three contests. Although Jameis Winston may not be known for his consistency, he has thrown for 569 yards and 4 touchdowns over his last two games, with 46 and 41 pass attempts, respectively. If Winston continues to throw at that volume, Njoku is likely to see plenty of targets, especially considering his 14-target performance in Week 7 against the Bengals.

    The Browns' offense has struggled in both the passing and running games (ranking 25th and 30th, respectively), which means Winston chucking the ball 40+ times is likely their best chance to move the ball. While it is surprising to see any Browns player make this list, if anyone is poised to deliver a fantasy spark, it is Njoku. With 49ers tight end George Kittle expected to miss this week’s game, Njoku steps into the void, offering a solid option at a position where Kittle would have been the ideal must-play. Having said that, Njoku is a GEM this week!

• Pat Friermuth ($4,200 on DraftKings -- $5,300 on FanDuel)

This week, the Steelers' offense is primed to explode—yes, I know, it is a bold statement, especially against the Baltimore Ravens, who typically play a hard-nosed brand of football in this division rivalry. But, like the other top plays from Pittsburgh we have highlighted, we think Pat Freiermuth is in a prime position to exploit the Ravens' weaknesses. He is a great stacking option with Russell Wilson and George Pickens (both earlier featured as top plays), especially if you decide to triple stack your lineup.

While Freiermuth has not had a breakout season, he is still making the most of his opportunities. With the Steelers being a run-heavy team and most of the targets going Pickens' way, Freiermuth has managed to average 8.2 DraftKings points per game, with three touchdowns to his name. He is a reliable safety blanket for Wilson, particularly when the pass rush is closing in. In fact, Wilson found Freiermuth in the end zone last week, further cementing his role in this offense.

At just $4,200 on DraftKings and $5,300 on FanDuel, Freiermuth is a fantastic value play against the league’s worst pass defense. We project him to catch 5 passes for 44 yards, with a strong chance of scoring a touchdown for the second consecutive week. If Freiermuth does find the end zone, he will blow past his projections and give you serious bang for your buck in your Steelers stack.

With these expectations in mind, Freiermuth is our top VALUE tight end!

DEFENSE:

• Minnesota Vikings: ($3,700 on DraftKings -- $5,000 on FanDuel)

The Vikings’ defense has been solid all season, and they are in a great spot this week against a Tennessee Titans offense that has been struggling. The Titans rank 27th in passing and 15th in rushing, making for a favorable matchup for Minnesota. The Vikings have been forcing turnovers at an impressive rate, and that is usually a recipe for success in DFS.

While defense may not be the most exciting position for DFS players, getting it wrong can be the difference between cashing and not. Minnesota has 15 interceptions, 5 fumble recoveries, and 30 sacks this season, which bodes well for this week’s game against second year quarterback Will Levis. The Vikings’ defense is ranked 23rd against the pass but 2nd against the run, meaning the Titans will likely have to rely on Levis to move the ball through the air—something that could easily lead to turnovers.

Some DFS players tend to shy away from spending big on defenses, but in this case, we are all in on the Vikings. With their ability to generate pressure and take the ball away, the Minnesota Vikings Defense is a GEM this week!

•  Green Bay Packers: ($3,500 on DraftKings -- $4,600 on FanDuel)

The Green Bay Packers are set to face off against a struggling Chicago Bears team in this NFC North division matchup. The Packers’ pass defense is ranked 15th—solid but not spectacular—while the Bears’ passing offense ranks 26th, giving Green Bay the upper hand in this area. On the ground, the Packers’ run defense is much stronger, ranking 11th overall, while the Bears sit at 24th in rushing offense. So, both the passing and rushing matchups favor the Packers.

Although the Packers’ defense has not put up massive DraftKings scores recently, this week presents a fantastic opportunity for a solid performance. We expect minimal scoring from Chicago with Green Bay’s defense recording a few sacks and turnovers.

As mentioned as an earlier GEM, Green Bay running back Josh Jacobs also aligns well with this play. In DFS, there is a natural correlation between a running back’s success and the defense’s performance—if your running back is moving the ball and scoring, the defense is likely to capitalize on that momentum.

The Packers have accumulated 10 interceptions, 9 fumble recoveries, and 22 sacks this season. We believe they will add to those totals in this matchup.

The Green Bay Packers Defense is a GEM this week!

•  Miami Dolphins: ($3,000 on DraftKings -- $4,300 on FanDuel)

The Miami Dolphins' season has been a bit of a rollercoaster. After losing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa to a concussion for multiple weeks, the offense was in disarray, struggling without a reliable backup. But now that Tua is back, the offense is starting to click again, even if they have not quite hit their full stride yet. And when the offense gets rolling, that often leads to big things for the defense as well—especially against an opponent like the Las Vegas Raiders, who struggle to even remember what sport they are playing.

The Raiders' passing offense ranks 30th in the league, while the Dolphins' pass defense is ranked 6th, giving Miami a huge advantage. The Raiders' rushing offense is even worse, ranking 31st overall, and the Dolphins' run defense sits at a solid 12th. It is clear that the Raiders are going to have a tough time moving the ball downfield in this matchup.

Without having to look much further than that, the Miami Dolphins Defense is our top VALUE defense this week!